Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Learning And Assessing Pupils Progress Education Essay

The appraisal of students ‘ advancement has been modified slightly since it was introduced by Black ‘s ( 1987 ) study with the National Curriculum Task Group on Assessment and Testing ; which was set up as portion of the readyings of what became the 1988 Education Reform Act. The act brought in the appraisal agreements for the terminal of the 4 cardinal phases, at the ages of 7, 11, 14 and 16 severally. It was decided that merely the nucleus topics of the national course of study should be assessed at the first cardinal phase and ‘at subsequent key phases it should be in all the foundation topics ( the nucleus subjects plus art, geographics, history, music, physical instruction, engineering, a modern foreign linguistic communication at the last two phases, and Welsh in non-Welsh speech production schools in Wales ) p.40. Kyriacou ( 2007 ) provinces, the debut of the National Curriculum in 1989 were coupled with associated processs for supervising students ‘ ad vancement affecting the usage of centrally produced trials. These trials so gave an indicant of both students ‘ public presentation and that of the schools nationally. The course of study was so looked at once more in 1993 by the School Curriculum and Assessment Authority ‘s president Sir Ron Dearing, who was asked to ‘†¦review the course of study with a position to ‘slimming down ‘ the course of study, simplifying its appraisal arrangements†¦ ‘ p.45 The 1997 Education Act saw the School Curriculum and Assessment Authority replaced by the Qualifications and Curriculum Authority ( QCA ) which is still in topographic point today. The appraisal of larning at the terminal of KS 1,2 and 3 is now a combination of instructor appraisals and terminal of cardinal phase standardized national trials, SATs, although in 2009 the terminal of KS3 trials were abolished ; and scientific discipline at KS2 is merely to being used in some pilot schools for 2010. In 2005 the Labour Government ‘s Schools White Paper committed support for every kid in giving them personalised instruction and acquisition ; by seting kids and their demands foremost, giving support to do good advancement and go forthing no kid left behind in their instruction. This study will look at the modern-day issues of Assessment for Learning ( AfL ) and its new spouse ; Assessing Pupils ‘ Progress ( APP ) and their usage within the constitution ( primary school ) and how or whether it has impacted on the manner appraisal is carried out across the board.Why Assess?Appraisal is highly of import as it shows how students are come oning and carried out with thorough processs can be of important value to instructors and the students they teach. It checks that larning has taken topographic point. There are many different methods of appraisals these include ; treatments, questionnaires, tests, presentations, function drama, observations, written work, practical work and inquiring. Using appraisals can assist instructors and scholars reflect on their pattern and how their scholars are larning. Assessment helps instructors make up one's mind how they teach, utilizing different learning methods to guarantee that all scholars are proactive. Cowley ( 2004 ) stated that good appraisal would assist the instructor proctor the scholars ‘ advancement and program for future instruction and acquisition. Assessment encourages scholars ‘ motive and they can have feedback ( both instructor and equal ) on their advancement. Teachers ‘ can utilize a scope of assessment methods to look into students ‘ advancement. Obviously appraisal does non come easy, instructors ‘ work load can be increased greatly ; both when transporting out the appraisals and so holding to tag them. There can be unneeded force per unit area put on to the scholars ‘ , and sometimes when measuring a scholar it depends how they are experiencing at the point of appraisal on how good they do. In 2006 the new Primary National Strategy for literacy and mathematics gave two chief intents of appraisal, summational appraisal of acquisition and formative appraisal for acquisition ; which the new model aimed to cover. This scheme gave instructors counsel on facets of appraisal for larning which was linked straight with counsel on planning and gave a broader and stronger pedagogic attack.Appraisal for Learning ( AfL ) SchemeHarmonizing to the Assessment Reform Group ( 2002 ) , ‘Assessment for acquisition is the procedure of seeking and construing grounds for usage by scholars and their instructors to make up one's mind where the scholars are in their acquisition, where they need to travel and how best to acquire at that place ‘ . AfL has been used for a figure of old ages and has given instructors ‘ ways in which themselves and students can utilize assessment activities to derive a clearer apprehension of the acquisition that has taken topographic point to day o f the month and how students ‘ hereafter acquisition can outdo advancement ( Gardner, 2006 ) . AfL is closely linked to the authorities ‘s Every Child Matters ( 2004 ) where every kid should be healthy, stay safe, enjoy and achieve, do a positive part and accomplish societal and economical wellbeing ; and personalised acquisition, both ethos ‘ have featured to a great extent within a scope of DCSF policies throughout the last decennary. The purposes of the AfL scheme are clear ; they should embrace every kid, instructor, school and parent/carer so that every kid knows how they are making. Every instructor is able to do judgements on students ‘ attainment, advancement and how to send on program when students are non carry throughing their possible. Every school should hold good placed structured and regular appraisals and tracking schemes in topographic point and every parent and carer should cognize how their kid is come oning and when they need to better ; they can assist back up their kid and the instructor. The benefits of AfL is its powerful manner of raising students ‘ accomplishment, if students ‘ understand how they learn, where they have spreads in their acquisition and how they can shut these spreads so it will hold a positive consequence on every kid. Harmonizing to the authorities, good appraisal for larning makes: accurate, carnival, dependable, utile, and focused continuity enabling schools to guarantee acquisition is taking topographic point. Therefore instructors, schools and parents and carers all need to cognize where their kids are now, where they need to be and what they are required to make to acquire at that place. The four elements for AfL so are aims, oppugning, unwritten and written feedback and ego and peer appraisal. The aims are met by utilizing oppugning in order to look into scholars ‘ have achieved aims, equal and self appraisal helps scholars to recognize what successful work looks like and the instructor shows good unwritten feedback so that scholars ‘ develop their ain accomplishments in this country, giving them clip to reflect on their acquisition and taking ownership of their work.Measuring Pupils Progress – What is APP?Measuring Pupils Progress, otherwise known as APP was originally piloted by 104 schools in 12 local governments utilizing, ab initio, Key Stage 2, as a new structured attack to teacher appraisal for doing judgements on students reading, composing and mathematics. Developed by the QCA in concurrence with the National Strategies, get downing in fall 2006 with recommendations reported in 2008/09. It has since been adopted as the manner to officially measure students within schools throughout the state, to assist instructors measure their students as more of a forensic attack, to run aboard Assessment for larning ( AfL ) . Harmonizing to the QCA it helps instructors to polish their apprehension of scholars ‘ demands and to orient their planning and learning consequently. The QCA has provided APP stuffs for instructors to implement the attack and with these guidelines instructors are able to set up where students are within the National Curriculum degrees. Hence one Year 5 instructor stated, ‘APP has helped me to go more cognizant of the appraisal opportunities that exist and more secure in measuring students ‘ degrees of attainment ‘ . When APP was introduced there were steps given to schools to assist implement the system and possible early theoretical accounts were advised demoing the benefits and more significantly their restrictions of usage. For illustration, one option was to place a whole school sample, for case all pupils antecedently assessed at a peculiar degree, the benefits of this would be a clear focal point, ab initio little graduated table and hence manageable, nevertheless this would non be implemented with a whole category and other degrees may non be covered. The affectional usage of APP was besides shown to supply information for tracking students ‘ advancement in item, placing barriers to achievement and to guarantee outlooks were linked to the national schemes. The APP stuffs for instructors to utilize include a enchiridion to assist implement the attack, give guidelines for measuring students ‘ work, supplying a simple format for entering the appraisal standards and focal points for appraisal within the specific topic. There are besides standard files which hold students ‘ work, which have been annotated, so that instructors become consistent in their judgements sing national course of study degrees, these files show different degrees of attainment. Assessment Focus ( AF ) grids are provided to demo how focal points are used, for illustration in reading appraisal AF3 shows that the student should be able to ‘deduce, deduce or construe information, events or thoughts from texts ‘ . In utilizing APP it was hoped that instructors ‘ would go more informed on how their scholars ‘ are come oning and that they would hold a aggregation of appraisal accomplishments in order to do good judgements in the schoolroom. Harmonizing to the AfL and APP clip line instructors in KS2 should be get downing to utilize the APP procedure so they can do periodic appraisals of all kids by fall 2009. The clip line for the execution of APP started in summer 2008 when school and capable leading were expected to make a ego – rating of AfL and APP in preparedness of its execution and to see what degree of support was required. This so moved to them having preparation in the usage of APP by fall 2008 and to hold developed the procedure of standardization in school with a average term go oning professional development ( CPD ) program to guarantee that whole school development of AfL and APP where in topographic point and that instructors would get down to utilize the APP stuffs. By spring 2009, instructors in KS2 should get down utilizing the APP procedure and others were doing effectual usage of the Primary Framework and assessment information to better their planning for patterned advance ; in fall 2009 it was expected that KS2 instructors were utilizing the APP procedure to do periodic appraisals for all kids. APP appraisals were more likely to hold truth when a scope of grounds is collected by instructors from each kid that has been chosen, both written and unwritten grounds would profit the procedure and periodic reappraisal of their work should be collected and merely those with important grounds demand be used.The usage and impact of AfL and APP within the sceneAfL has been used since it was foremost introduced and the school has now taken the APP attack on board since the fall term 2009 as a new attack to measuring. The schools appraisal policy is undergoing alteration at the present clip so as to integrate the new appraisal schemes. Derbyshire County Council provided of import support preparation for caput instructors in 2008 demoing a power point presentation which included doing links within AfL and APP, demoing APP in action within numeracy and literacy and stoping with a reappraisal and appropriate action planning. This session provided counsel and advice about implementing APP and to back up an apprehension of APP. At this point the APP scheme was extremely recommended but non statutory. The preparation included the advancement docket of APP, demoing the patterned advance marks as 2 degrees advancement, the doing good advancement pilot strategy, AfL utilizing APP standards, patterned advance tutoring and individual degree proving. It besides applied the beef uping for formative appraisal, concentrating on each scholar ‘s acquisition, accelerated rates of accomplishment ( concentrating particularly on those at hazard of underperforming ) and assisting to clear up the acquisition journey. The National Strategies model informations where shown to assist with thoughts of how to bring forth a criterions file. An first-class illustration for Ma2 Number at degrees 3 and 4 showed how the usage of different coloring material highlighters for each term were used demoing when a specific degree was low, secure or high and annotated in the countries where it was felt there was either more work to be done or how far they were away achieving the degree. In the school it has enhanced instructors ‘ apprehension of inquiring whether the larning aims they ask of the kids are relevant to them, do they understand what they are supposed to accomplish by the terminal of the lesson and is it in kid friendly linguistic communication? There has to be meaningful duologue between the instructor and scholar with respect to the larning nonsubjective otherwise the scholar will withdraw and non be able to come on with what they are supposed to larn, this has been monitored throughout the scene. The appraisal focuses that were discussed were reading, composing, utilizing and using, figure, form, infinite and steps ; and managing informations. The National Strategies AF grid was introduced and this lead to the school bring forthing accessible degrees for reading, composing and numeracy from degree 1to degree 5, so instructors could mention to each with a position to associating the degrees and appraisal demands as applicable. The APP procedure started in earnest in fall 2009 ; when samples of scholars ( 6 ) were chosen from each twelvemonth group. Each term instructors review the full scope of grounds ( written, spoken and observed ) for each appraisal focal point. They select the appropriate degree boundary and arrive at judgements utilizing the assessment guidelines sheet ; they annotate illustrations of scholars work as mention points and benchmarks. After making this in-school standardization and moderateness is carried out with co-workers. The deductions of APP within the school have helped with the professional development of instructors ; it has had an impact on capable cognition, the course of study and teaching method, it has given instructors the ability to feedback to scholars and their parents/carers so that they can see where they have progressed or how they need to come on farther. It has helped instructors to do good judgements sing their scholars and how to guarantee that they progress wit hin the course of study overall, it has helped them to distinguish scholars ‘ advancement so they can orient lessons suitably. APP has enabled better monitoring of schoolroom activities and prep in twelvemonth 6 ; as the scholars are asked to measure whether they have understood the lesson at the terminal by doing a remark in their exercising books, the instructor can so measure whether the scholar feels they have made advancement, if non the work is gone through once more, if necessary with a one to one or in little groups. With prep the scholar is asked to work unaided and if they have trouble with any oppugning so they should go forth it clean and it will be covered once more when the whole category grade their prep together. This enables equal to peer appraisal and encourages positive feedback whether jobs arise or non. The usage of an rating trigon helps scholars ‘ ego evaluate and is besides used as a equal rating tool every bit good, this is used in composing where there are 5 ratings: is it easy to read and put out in paragraphs, is the script joined and legible, is at that place good usage of vocabulary and conjunctions, is it easy to understand and does it flux, eventually is it finished. The scholar so decides whether they need one side of the trigon ( no ) , two sides ( largely ) or three sides ( everything done ) , this is both a ocular and kinesthetic attack to measuring their work. Most of the instructors have been utilizing the APP attack for measuring scholars since fall 2009 ; but they all have different positions, some find it easier to integrate within their instruction manners ; others have found that they have had to accommodate the manner in which they teach in order to suit the APP scheme in. However, most instructors feel they have become more expert at judging where their scholars are and how they can assist them better their advancement in line with the Primary National Strategy ; particularly as they are larning to make this together instead than on their ain, collaborative moderateness helps tremendously. As portion of the execution of APP, Derbyshire County Council have asked the school for information on reexamining the leading and direction of alteration ( APP focal point ) and reexamining acquisition and instruction in lessons ( AfL focal point ) for both students and instructors. This information is set out in four columns with the undermentioned headers ; concentrating, developing, set uping and heightening, the caput instructor and the helper caput established the statements that the school, students and instructors were secure in and highlighted them suitably and punctually returned them. Some of these included: Most teaching staff ( including learning helpers ) understand the APP procedure, i.e. how it fits in with planning and mundane instruction and its possible to track kids ‘s advancement identify specific countries of underachievement and inform targeted intercession. Parents and carers are informed as to students ‘ advancement. Students are confident to take hazards by sharing partly formed thought or constructively ambitious others Pupils value talk for acquisition and consciously utilize it to progress their thought Lessons are planned to larning aims with some relevant undertakings and success standards as appropriate There are chances for structured whole-class, and supported group/paired treatment One of the KS1 instructors ‘ had already been utilizing APP in their old school and has been able to utilize APP without vacillation and has incorporated this for all of their category. This shows that as Sue Hackman ( 2009 ) , Chief Adviser on School Standards, points out APP is a straightforward attack to doing unafraid judgements about the criterion of students ‘ work and what they need to make next. Hackman ( 2009 ) besides states in the Making Good Progress, a Teachers Television programme that the authorities is acquiring what they want if all the schools kids are doing good advancement. By utilizing APP she besides thinks that it is the trademark of schools that make good advancement. The school has been able to give parent and carers priceless advice sing their kids ‘s advancement and parents and carers, in return have been able to give their kids support with any topics they possibly falling behind with. Termly information cusps are sent out to each kid by their instructors saying what their category will be larning in that peculiar term, this enables the parents and carers to hold an informed penetration into the specific undertakings that their kids are prosecuting with at any specific clip within the school twelvemonth. In the twelvemonth six category APP is an effectual support for the passage and transportation to secondary school and this is shared with parents and carers at their kid ‘s parents flushing, giving the marks set by the students themselves to assist them travel frontward to their chosen secondary schools, with which there is a close affair to guarantee they are good informed about what recent advancement they have made and the following stairss they are expected to do to travel frontward in their acquisition. This helps the continuity of the scholars ‘ patterned advance and to go on the high degrees of outlook both from the scholar and their parents and carers. Care needs to be taken when utilizing APP with kids from underachieving groups such as English as an extra linguistic communication ( EAL ) as the profiles of these scholars are more likely to be uneven and hence the scope of grounds should be much wider in order to do a periodic appraisal.Evaluation and DecisionAPP is in its babyhood within the school ; nevertheless those instructors who have been utilizing it as a method of appraisal have done so with an unfastened head. Most of the appraisal methods were in topographic point within AfL and the individualized acquisition ethos of the school was in topographic point already, so therefore it should non be excessively hard for the remainder of the staff to set about the APP attack. Equally long as all staff including instruction helpers are included in the preparation for this inspiring manner of measuring students ‘ advancement so there should be a smooth passage for the following measure when external moderateness takes topographic point. The biggest advantage of APP is it uses the national schemes which are already in topographic point, the pilot schools have trialled the attacks with success and found that APP is all that is required to do good appraisal judgements, as one KS 2 instructor provinces ; ‘Do n't give up – one time you are used to the procedure the benefits for teaching method and pattern are clear ‘ . AfL and APP are inextricably linked to personalised larning whereby a instructor has a secure cognition of each scholars ‘ advancement and therefore can accurately orient their instruction methods to each scholar and their single demands, this is go oning in the school where the acquisition procedure is being monitored by the APP appraisals of the twenty-four hours to twenty-four hours learning. Therefore it has to be said that it is beef uping the periodic facet of appraisal and so the scholars ‘ receive formal acknowledgment of their accomplishments within the category and as a whole school when certifications and virtues are given out in assemblies. The effects of appraisal in general have to be ; that appraisal is an highly of import portion of instruction and acquisition. It can be carried out informally and officially utilizing a assortment of methods but depends on the type of scholar. The informations it produces is used for rating of instruction and acquisition and all members of staff should hold the appropriate preparation and apprehension of how the information is used and their functions and duties in instruction and measuring their scholars. Students so should be able to cognize their learning aims and what their success standards looks like, they are able to take ownership of their acquisition and can besides assist their equals to win. Parents and carers must be kept informed by appraising studies and parents eventides which provide them with the information about their kid ‘s advancement and the following stairss they need to take whether into the following category or even the following school. The kernel of appraisal so is that it is an built-in portion of readying, planning and learning with a good measured measure of enthusiasm, so everyone knows where they are, where they need to be and how they are traveling to acquire at that place.

Hurricane Igor

When going to cnn. com I found that right away it had the link that I could click on to see all of the information about how Bermuda is bracing for hurricane Igor. Also, there are links that you can click on to view videos and live feed to see how bad it actually is. This site tells you everything you need to know such as sustained winds, the wind gust, and the latitude and longitude of the hurricane. The one thing I found interesting is it gives you a picture of the projected path that it is going. It also tells you what category, or size, the hurricane is. As of right now CNN is saying that hurricane Igor is going to affect the United States east coast over the weekend. CNN also gives you a link that you can recommend this website to people on your Facebook. This is a good thing on their part because with the Facebook link people can like it and see this article on your Facebook. They can see that you went to this site and they might look at it and like it too. This means more publicity for CNN and more people will view the top stories on there. CNN has a big article on how sever and damaging hurricane Igor is. CNN also tells you about any other hurricanes or tropical storms that were or are going to be dangerous to the east coast or Bermuda and what their projected paths are. When I went onto MSNBC. com I found the article right away, with big bold letters that say â€Å"Bermuda braces for ‘long and punishing’ Igor. † This right away attracted me to click on that headline so I can get more information on the weather and Igor. After clicking on the link there is a big picture of someone boarding their house up to keep it safe. Down at the bottom of the website it gives you three options that you can tell people about this story. You can email this story to a friend, you can share it on Facebook or you can share it on twitter. These are three main ways that people can spread this story to others so that they are aware of how sever the hurricane is. MSNBC. com also gives you a huge, well detailed article written by Elizabeth Roberts. She stated how sever the weather was in the beginning of the week. It was a category four in the beginning of the week and it has now gone down to a category two hurricane. The reporter talks about the sustained winds and the location of hurricane Igor. She tells you where it is headed and where it is going to impact. They also have this interactive tracker that shows you three different hurricanes and you can click on each one to find out how sever each one is and where it is headed. This gets updated every couple of minutes. You can also put in your address and it will give you the 5 day forecast. You can also click on a link that will give you archives of previous storms. FOXnews. com was one if the difficult websites for me. I went to their site and I didn’t see anything on hurricane Igor that caught my attention. I had to really look for this story, and I found it as I scrolled down and there is a little box that has the latest news, most read, and videos. The Bermuda story was far down the list and you had to click on the link to go to the story. When going into this article, there are no pictures of hurricane Igor, it is all words. This site gives you an article by Rick Leventhal, in which he writes about hurricane Igor. In this article he states that hurricane Igor is a category two hurricane and how it makes landfall with sustained winds near 110 miles per hour, gusting to 130. Fox news also tells you that the last major storm was back in 2003. So that is a paragraph that was interesting because it showed how they haven’t had one since then. It gives you how a hotel business has gone down by 50% since hurricane season started; this isn’t good for Bermudas economy. You cannot share this with anyone on face book or twitter but there is a place that you can leave comments and you can get follow up via email if anyone comments on this story. There is a link that you can click on that will take you to the author’s biography. It also gives you a list of all the articles he has written and there are someone other hurricanes on there. There are many similar things that all of these websites have such as telling everyone where the hurricane is located. It also describes in detail the wind gust and when it is suspected to hit the targeted area. Now when it comes to the difference there is a bunch of them. CNN from the beginning of the home page gives you a picture to look at, but also gives you a link to click on so you can view more. When you are looking on CNN you can see how they use bold writing when it comes to the sustained wind and wind gust, also the latitude and longitude. MSNBC on the other hand uses the hurricane interactive tracker to tell you all of that. I found that this is very detailed and very helpful. It is a different kind of tool that you can use to really see where hurricanes are going and who will be affected by them. MSNBC and CNN give you the option to send the information to someone by emailing, facebooking, or placing it on twitter. This helps them get more viewers and makes their rating go up for how many people view the website. Fox news on the other hand is not at all appealing for the weather. You have to really look for the article and when you find it, all it gives you is the article. The difference here is that there is not enough information for me about the hurricane, Igor.

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

The Global Financial Crisis and the Imf

Table of Contents 1. 0 Objectives2 2. 0 Introduction2 3. 0 Types of Financial Crisis2 3. 0. 1 Banking Crisis2 3. 0. 2 Speculative Bubble3 3. 0. 3 International Crisis3 4. 0 Causes of the Financial Crisis 2007-20083 4. 0. 1 Loose Monetary Policy. 3 4. 0. 2 Global Imbalances. 4 4. 0. 3 Credit Boom. 5 4. 0. 4 Asset Bubble. 5 4. 0. 5 Financial Innovation5 5. 0 Impact of Financial Crisis6 5. 0. 1 Impact to U. S Financial System. 6 5. 0. 2 Economic Growth Rates. 6 5. 0. 3 Personal Finances of US Citizens. 7 5. 0. 4 High Unemployment Rate. 5. 0. 5 Impact on the IMF9 6. 0 Policy Response9 6. 0. 1 Term Auction Facility (TAF). 9 6. 0. 2 Economic Stimulus Act 2008. 10 6. 0. 3 Initial Cuts in Interest Rate. 11 7. 0 IMF Response to the Crisis12 8. 0 Conclusion14 9. 0 References15 1. 0 Objectives Objective of this topic is to giving a scope about the recent global financial crisis 2007 which discussing about the causes and impacts of the crisis and focusing mainly in the United States. Then, it wi ll focus on the policy response of the country towards the crisis.Role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is also given attention to understand how it works as the ‘international lender of last resort’. 2. 0 Introduction Financial institutions which play an important role in the economy, act as intermediaries between borrowers and lenders. Channelling of funds to individuals or firm that have bright investment opportunities takes place in the financial markets. Without financial intermediaries, it is difficult for companies to operate business. The economy also cannot operate efficiently if the financial system does not perform the role well.Systematic risk is a risk that could be failures of financial institution that freezing up capital market and eventually reduces the supply of capital to the economy. The United States experienced this systematic failure during 2007 and continues to struggle its consequences until 2009. Financial crisis occur when an economic encounter recession or depression caused by lack of liquidity in financial institution. In this circumstances, financial institutions lose huge part of their value. Financial crisis is not the same as economic crisis which affect the entire economy.A financial crisis can occur in a single sector and not always affect other sectors. The causes of financial crisis are different with the type of crisis. The financial crisis 2007-2008 started in August 2007 as a subprime mortgage crisis concentrated in the United States. The crisis became global but originally started in the financial sector of the United States and soon became global economic crisis. Mostly economies in the world were affected by this crisis because the United States economy can be thought as powerful economy in the world. 3. 0 Types of Financial Crisis . 0. 1 Banking Crisis Banks normally function by providing deposit accounts to people who want to make savings and it can be withdraw anytime. The banks then use these deposits to make loans and charge interest to borrower which are paid over a long period of time. If all the depositors want to withdraw money at one time, the banks will face lack of cash flow and will be bankrupt. This situation is called banking crisis. 3. 0. 2 Speculative Bubble Some people buy stock by speculating the price, hoping that price of the stock will increase in the future.Therefore, if most investor buy stock speculatively, chances that the stock price will increase are be very high. When all the investors want to sell at the same time, then the price will likely to fall. When price of a stock is more than its current price plus dividends and interest, then the stock is said to show a bubble. 3. 0. 3 International Crisis This crisis occurs when a country is forced to devalue its currency. This can happen either because of speculative attack or a country is default in paying its debt. When this occurs, all countries that were trading with this country will be affected .Investors also will lose the value of their investment because the currency has been devalued to lower rate. 4. 0 Causes of the Financial Crisis 2007-2008 4. 0. 1 Loose Monetary Policy. Monetary policy implemented by the Federal Reserve plays an important role in determining the interest rate. It is believed that loose or weak monetary policy implemented by the U. S Federal Reserve is among the cause to the crisis. After the internet or dotcom bubble in 2000, loose monetary policy is applied by the U. S Federal Reserve. The federal funds rate dropped from 5. 8% in January 2001 to 1. 73% in January 2002 and remained low for several years as shown in chart 1. This policy thus encourage U. S consumption, reduced savings and created high current account deficit. The Federal Reserve had made mistake by its decision to keep the federal funds rate too low for too long. The policy therefore responsible for creating the credit boom and housing bubble. In other words, with a low federal fund s target, banks take advantage on cheap funding and made cheap loans available. From year 2000 to 2006, total debt outstanding for the U.S has increased by $13. 5 trillion. The debt to GDP ratio is increased to 350%. This high level of debt made firms and households more exposed to adverse economic shock. Other than that, the Federal Reserve and regulators made mistake in the failure to control the poor underwriting standards in the mortgage markets. The poor underwriting practices can be seen through no down payments, no verification of income, asset and occupation by borrowers. Credit that was widely available suggested poorer loan quality. Chart 1: Loose monetary policy Source: Adapted from The EconomistChart 1 shows that the actual interest rate fell below the Taylor rule, that is the interest rate what historical experience suggest policy should be adapted. The line slopped downward to 1 percent in 2003 to 2004 and then rises until 2006. The Taylor rule line shows what interest rate would have be if the Fed followed the policy that worked well since the early 1980. 4. 0. 2 Global Imbalances. The recent financial crisis happens when there is much liquidity in world capital markets. It is due to the large payment imbalances between the main countries and regions in the world economy.Global imbalances occur when there is huge and continuing current account deficit in the United States. The current account deficit is financed by plenty of flows of capital from emerging and oil exporting countries. As the consequences, the global imbalances encourage financial activity that would not be effective in long time without the development of deep global financial markets. High levels of global liquidity happens when countries such as China built up current account surpluses and foreign exchange reserves, maintaining artificially low exchange rates and a positive saving investment balance.Because of this liquidity level, global real interest rates fell which contribu ted to credit expansion and rising asset prices that drives to the crisis. 4. 0. 3 Credit Boom. Credit boom happens when banks and mortgage brokers encouraged mortgage sales because they earned fees in proportion to the volume of mortgages they wrote. Banks earned large fees by securitizing mortgages, selling them to capital markets in forms of mortgage backed securities (MBS) and collateral debt obligations (CDO). Since banks distributed these mortgages to capital markets as asset backed securities, it has low risk upon the process.Compared to corporate bonds that had low interest rate during the time, these complex and risky products is highly demanded by institutional investors such as hedge fund and insurance companies. Mortgage sales expanded even to those who could not afford them as the banks only focused on earned large fees. When the housing price bubble evaporated or interest rates rose it turned out to be large defaults. Home sales peaked in late 2005 meanwhile home const ruction spending and housing prices decline in early 2006. When the subprime mortgage crisis started in 2007, the entire market began to collapse.The crisis began in the United States, but because the mortgage based financial products has been spread around the world it soon became global financial crisis. 4. 0. 4 Asset Bubble. Another factor to the financial crisis is an asset bubble that leads to unsustainable leverage. Before the start of the crisis, the U. S government implemented a public policy that encourages homeownership. Because of low interest rate, it has led to mortgage lending and households were encouraged by the banks to borrow causing asset (house) price to increase.The borrowing is allowed up to the full value of their property with little regard to their ability to service the debt. Borrowing is encouraged because of the low interest rate made by monetary policy makers. The demand for housing is related to money market interest rates. Thus, the accommodative polic y conducted by the Federal Reserve contributed to the build up of housing demand and asset prices. The term sub-prime mortgage come when lending activities is also approved to people who did not meet the credit requirements that may default to payments. 4. 0. 5 Financial Innovation.Usually, banks and other agents innovate to avoid regulation and boost returns by taking greater risks. When asset prices increase more rapidly, innovation also accelerates as expected gains grow larger. The main innovation is the process of securitization. This complex ‘securitized’ pools of loans promising high returns with low risk. Thus, in the United States, ballooning mortgage loans to riskier borrowers provided the basis for an ever-larger inverted pyramid of structured products. As the housing prices increasing, lenders provide mortgage lending easily.However the mortgage were securitised, that is repackaged and sold as financial instruments to investors for immediate cash. This led t o excessive and irresponsible mortgage lending. The institutions that originated the mortgages such as commercial banks, savings and loans eventually did not holding the mortgages because it has been sold to investors by the investment banks. This innovation has caused massive distortions in incentives and risk management in the financial organizations. It was an instrumental in strengthen the increase in leverage.Starting in 2003, banks involve rapidly in financing activities, investments and hedging operations that hard to assess risks. When asset prices began to fall, financial organization brought down together and spread panic among investors worldwide. This development has caused massive distortions in incentives and risk management arrangements within financial organizations. 5. 0 Impact of Financial Crisis 5. 0. 1 Impact to U. S Financial System. The U. S government has closed 22 banks including Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual and Indymac.Other than that, it has rescued F reddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Bear Stearns and created a bailout fund around $700 billion to purchase stakes in effected banks. This step is taken in order to restore confidence in the financial markets. However, this $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Programme (TARP) failed to restore market confidence. Nearly $8. 5 trillion or around 60% of its gross domestic product has been committed by the U. S government to prevent the collapse of its financial system. 5. 0. 2 Economic Growth Rates. The effect of 2007 crisis can be seen clearly on the downturn economic growth globally.As shown in Figure 1, countries in the world are experiencing a downturn in economic activity as the effect of financial crisis. These declines in economic activity have been followed by losses of trillions of dollars in equity markets and a credit squeeze that are affecting households and businesses worldwide. Financing activities such as world trade and oil exploration has been slow during the time of crisis. As sho wn in chart 2 below, real growth rate measured by GDP across the world has been decreased. Real growth rate in reported by the World Bank is 3. 9% in 2007 dropped to 1. 3% in 2008.As the crisis became worsen, economic growth dropped much lower rate to -2. 2% in 2009. The U. S economy has a large proportion in world economy therefore it has slightly similar trend in the growth rate. The U. S real growth rate in 2007 is 1. 9% dropped to -0. 4% and -3. 5% in 2008 and 2009 respectively. Chart 2: GDP – real growth rate (%) Source: Adapted from World Bank data 5. 0. 3 Personal Finances of US Citizens. People have struggled to repay their debts as the direct consequences of the financial practices that produced the crisis. The value of house dropped dramatically for individuals who owned house before the crisis broke out.This caused some people repaying mortgages that are worth more than the current value of their house. Eventually, many people ended up losing the house that they bo ught in years before the crisis broke out. There were high rates of foreclosure in some area of the United States as borrowers cannot repay the loans. Other than that, individuals in the US also suffered from the loss of growth and income that their savings and investments would have produced. This is because interest rates for savings have dropped sharply. Investors and companies experiencing losses as the stock in many companies dropping rapidly.Retirement plans that are usually based on mutual funds and performance of the stock market results not as they had planned as the stock market crashed. They may need to work longer or retirement plans is less than expected before. Moreover, it has become more difficult to borrow money. While expensive loan services have been expanded, people find it hard to obtain low cost loans or credit cards. 5. 0. 4 High Unemployment Rate. The US gross domestic product which is the total amount of goods and services produced by the country was reduced as the effect of the crisis.Companies in the country struggled to cope with the crisis, however lots of people have lost their jobs. Based on chart 3, the uneployment rate grew from 4. 7% in 2006 to 10% in 2010 which was the highest rate in the last few decades. In addition to lose income, unemployment made it worse for many people because it has become difficult to find new job. Many companies are not willing to hire new employer and even a fresh graduates have to compete to find employment. This become a serious problem for many young citizens in the country. Chart 3: Unemployment rate in the US Source:Adapted from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 5. 0. 5 Impact on the IMF The damage caused by the financial crisis is a challenge for the IMF. This is because, its financial resource is not in line with the global economy over the past decade. The United States and other advanced industrial economies are at the center of the crisis. However, the IMF would not have enough resources to provide financial assistance if these countries seek for help. Therefore, the IMF resources need to be increase or the risk would become worse in the future. 6. 0 Policy Response 6. 0. 1 Term Auction Facility (TAF).The Term Auction Facility is introduced in December 2007 so that banks can borrow from the Fed easily. Thus the banks can bid directly for funds from the Fed. This is because investors are not willing to lend when afraid about the condition of many financial institutions affected by the crisis. Consequently bank funding markets were put under severe pressure. The main objective of the TAF was to reduce the spreads in the money markets and in that way increase the flow of credit and lower interest rates. As a result, the TAF helped by encouraging the distribution of liquidity when bank funding markets were under stress.The spread between the London interbank offered rate (Libor) and the overnight indexed swap (OIS) for loans of one-month maturity or longer increased to un usually high levels in the late 2007. It is believed that the increase in the Libor–OIS spread is caused by the heightened risk perceived by investors at the time. Since Libor affects interest rates on a wide variety of loans and securities (for example, home mortgages and corporate loans), the sudden spike in the spread was disruptive to the debt market and negatively affected the economy.The chart 4 and the table below also showed six announcements related to the TAF program. Chart 4: The TAF facility provided term funding through periodic auctions to eligible depository institutions. By providing term funds to banks at regularly scheduled auctions, the TAF may have assured lenders of continued access to future funding and thereby reduced their uncertainty regarding anticipated funding needs. The TAF was a facility designed by the Federal Reserve during the crisis to improve liquidity conditions in various asset markets that is crucial to improve short term funding market. . 0. 2 Economic Stimulus Act 2008. The Economic Stimulus Act 2008 is a response made by the government through several package totalling over $100 billion to individuals and families in the United States. The economic stimulus is designed to boost the U. S economy and prevent further recession. In this programme, the government provide tax rebates to low and middle income taxpayers and tax incentives to stimulate business investment. The purpose of the incentives is that the people will have more money to spend thus increase consumption and the economy.By doing so, the government would expect that it will recover the economy. However it is not as hoped because they spend little although the incentives were given. This can be shown through chart 5. The top line shows personal disposable income increased at the time of rebate. However, the lower line shows consumption did not increase as expected. Chart 5: Increase in income 6. 0. 3 Initial Cuts in Interest Rate. The third policy resp onse to the crisis is sharp reduction in the federal funds rate. When the crisis began in August 2007, the rate was 5. 25% and went down to 2% in April 2008 due to the cut.The lower interest rate then reduced the size of adjustable rate mortgage that was cause of the crisis. The most significant effect of this response is the depreciation of dollar and rise in oil price. In the early 2008, oil price increased almost two fold from $70 per barrel in 2007 to over $140 per barrel. High oil price hit the economy as gasoline price increased dramatically and automobile sales plunged. On the other side, the policy reduction in the federal funds rate that cuts interest rate helped raise oil and other commodity prices thus prolonged the crisis. Exchange rate also has influence to the rise of oil price.As shown in chart 6, reduction of the federal funds rate at top line in July 2007 drives the oil price at the bottom line upward until July 2008. Chart 6: Cut in interest rate and increase in oi l price 7. 0 IMF Response to the Crisis The main role of the IMF is to identify the risks that threaten global economic and financial stability and to develop policy responses. The IMF has a worldwide membership and its mandate is to promote economic and financial stability. It is has been provide forum for discussion of international economic issues and help to reach solution on policy responses.In response to the financial crisis, the IMF boosted their lending to developing countries to help them cope with the crisis and to sustain the economic recovery. To meet ever increasing financing needs of countries hit by the global financial crisis and help strengthen global economic and financial stability, the Fund has greatly expanding its lending capacity since the start of the global crisis. It has done so both by obtaining commitments to increase quota subscriptions of member countries and securing large temporary borrowing agreements from member countries, including recent pledges of $456 billion.Countries affected by the crisis can borrow funds from the IMF. Other than that, there is also debate about reforming the IMF. The reformation issues focus on the need to balance the traditional functions of providing short-term financial assistance and promoting external balance stability in member countries. To achieve the objective, there is a need for a wider responsibility of crisis prevention, supporting financially for countries that, although not suffering actual reserve shortage, are in danger of external shocks and liquidity runs. This measure would prevent more severe impact to member countries as the effect of financial crisis.Since year 2008, the Fund has introduced effective instruments to prevent sudden falls in investors’ trust and the eruption of liquidity crises. As a result, borrowers were able to cope with the global crisis, avoiding large scale banking crises and disruptive exchange rate movements and protecting social spending. To prevent the crisis, the IMF has lending arrangements signed by the IMF and low and middle-income countries during the crisis. These lending arrangements take part from January 2008 and June 2010. The size of the loan arranged by the IMF is larger for country that is more exposed to the crisis especially for large country.As a result this measure can prevent more severe contagion of the crisis to other countries. 8. 0 Conclusion The U. S. economy has suffered a few major shocks in recent years during the crisis. At the start, these shocks include a large declining in house prices and a spike in the prices of oil and other commodities. The decline in house prices reduced the value of mortgage backed securities. Because of leverage, this threatened the ability of many of financial institutions, including major investment banks. These shocks have combined to put the U. S. conomy and many economies throughout the world into a global financial crisis and a deep recession. It is likely the worse since the Great Depression in 1930sRegulatory failure is a main responsibility for the crisis. It is shown that weak regulatory in the financial system leaving the consumers inadequately protected. To cope with this crisis, the IMF had played an effective role. It has come out with a financial assistance by providing loan arrangements to the member countries. However, the financial crisis of 2007 therefore raises doubts in faith of the world financial system and in free enterprise.The financial system has to take appropriate measures and reform to improve the situation in the future. 9. 0 References Acharya, V. V. , Philippon, T. , Richardson, M. , & Roubini, N. (2009). The Financial Crisis of 2007-2009: Causes and Remedies. Barrell, R. , & Davis , P. E. (t. t). The Evolution of the Financial Crisis of 2007-8. National Institute of Economic and Social Research. Blundell-Wignall, A. , Atkinson, P. , & Lee , S. H. (2008). The Current Financial Crisis: Causes and Policy Issues. Financi al Market Trends OECD, 1-21. Campello, M. , Graham, J. , & Harvey, C.R. (2009). The Real Effects of Financial Constraints: Evidence from a Financial Crisis. NBER Working Paper Series. Carmassi, J. , Gros, D. , & Micossi, S. (2009). The Global Financial Crisis: Causes and Cures. Journal of Common Market Studies, 47(5), 997-996. Cecchetti, S. G. (2009). Crisis and Responses: The Federal Reserve in the Early Stages of the Financial Crisis. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 23(1), 51-75. Crotty, J. (2008). Structural Causes of the Global Finacial Crisis: A Critical Assessment of the ‘New Financial Architecture. Didapatkan dari http://scholarwork. mass. edu/econ_workingpaper Driehaus, R. H. (2010). The Crisis of 2008 and Financial Reform. Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, 2(3). doi:10. 1108/17554171011091728 Goodhart, C. A. (t. t). The Regulatory Response to the Financial Crisis. 2009. Didapatkan dari http://hdl. handle. net/10419/26302 Hellwig, M. (2008). Systematic Risk in the Financial Sector: An Analysis of the Subprime-Mortgage financial Crisis. Ivan, P. (2008). Financial Crisis 2008. Saw Centre Financial Studies No. 5. Merrouche, O. , ; Nier, E. (2010). What Caused the global Financial Crisis? Evidence on the Drivers of Financial Imbalances 1997 – 2007. IMF Working Paper. Mishkin, F. S. (1999). Global Financial Instability: Framework, Events, Issues. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 13(4), 3-20. Didapatkan dari http://links. jstor. org/sici? sici=0895-3309%28199923%2913%3A4%3C3%3AGFIFFEI%3E2. 0. CO%3B2-D Obstfeld, M. , ; Rogoff, K. (2009). Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Products of Common Causes. Reinhart, C. M. , ; Rogoff, K. S. (2009). The Aftermath of Financial Crises. NBER Working Paper Series. Rogoff, K. (1999).International Institutions for Reducing Global Financial Instability. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 13(4), 21-42. Didapatkan dari http://links. jstor. org/sici? sici=0895-3309%28199923%2913%3A4%3C21%3AII FRGF%3E2. 0. CO%3B2-3 Sanford, J. E. , ; Weiss, M. A. (2009). The Global Financial Crisis: Increasing IMF Resources and the Role of Congress. Congressional Research Service, 1-19. Sikka, P. (2009). Financial crisis and the silence of the authors. doi:10. 1016/j. aos. 2009. 01. 004 Taylor, J. B. (t. t). The Financial Crisis and the Policy Respenses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong. 2008.

Monday, July 29, 2019

How Facebook has Destroyed Privacy Boundaries Essay

How Facebook has Destroyed Privacy Boundaries - Essay Example In recent years, a number of social networking websites have been able to take advantage of the teeming amount of users looking to register and use the social networking services. This in turn has provided these websites with unwanted levels of influence that has tended to create privacy debacles that were unheard of in conventional human interaction (Berkman and Shumway). Perhaps one of the most popular websites for social networking in recent years has been Facebook. The website has come under the limelight time and again. Previously it was under the limelight as a business model for innovation and hallmark breakthroughs but in recent times it has been scrutinized for breaches of privacy. The various forms of breach of privacy have been recognized and investigated and is confirmed phenomenon leaving little to doubt them anymore (Iachello and Hong). Some breaches of privacy are caused due to users overlooking fine print details while other breaches of privacy occur due to online sur veillance. In addition to everything else, certain forms of breach of privacy occur due to the inherent design of social networking platforms. This paper will focus on the various forms of breach of privacy that have resulted from the use of Facebook whether these breaches were intentional or otherwise. Furthermore, the consequences of these breaches will be looked into in detail to gauge their effects on ordinary people. It is natural for human beings to be wary of each other when conducting conversations in person. Another major factor that limits the amount of information carried by human beings is the limit on information delivered at any one point in time through conversations. It would be unrealistic to assume that a person could convey all kinds of personal and family information to another in one meeting alone. However, this situation is totally reversed when using computing platforms to interact. People who use social networking websites such as Facebook will realize that a large amount of information has to be divulged in order to sign up for such services. The typical information required for such sign ups consists of a person’s name, date of birth, email address, home address and the like. Other forms of personal information is exposed and brought to the forefront as a person tends to interact with their social circles (Pankoke-Babatz and Jeffrey). Social networks such as Facebook allow the user to search for and add new â€Å"friends† who are effectively anybody you might know including friends, family and acquaintances. The interaction between a typical Facebook user and his â€Å"friends† is carried out through the wall of each individual account holder. The idea is simple and seem revolutionary at first – each user has a wall that anybody can write upon if they are included in the individual’s friend list. Moreover, other users do not necessarily have to write things on the wall, instead, they can simply choos e to like things online and share it on their friend’s walls. This means that if I was browsing the internet for a pair of boxing gloves and I happened to find a pair I like, I could essentially share the link on my wall and on the wall of my friends. This would allow me to tell my friends that I recently might have made a purchase of boxing gloves and that they might be interested in the same boxing gloves. At first sight the idea seems just absolutely amazing. Imagine the power of being able to share

Sunday, July 28, 2019

Social work and human services Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words - 1

Social work and human services - Essay Example I have learnt that reflection can be used as a way to correct any misconceptions, distorted beliefs or even the assumptions previously formed that lack verification of knowledge (Mendes, 2003). It is the interpretations made by the reader during the reflection process that leads to transformations. I learnt that reflection is different from critical reflection not so much in intensity but in magnitude. Critical reflection does the exact things reflection does but instead of focusing on only one area, it spreads to cover the whole self. It therefore covers the beliefs, the feelings, the thoughts and even the action. Critical reflection looks at the whole picture when it comes to analysing anything that is complex and is therefore preferred in cases where the social worker wants to change the practice or the human services that have been previously used (Lyons, 2001). Ethics are meant to establish good or bad. What I had not learnt but did so in this course is about the existence of ethical challenges which affect the social worker while carrying out their duties of social relationship and social functioning. These ethical challenges affect the relationships, the boundaries that need to be established when carrying out the practice, the confidentiality and privacy of some issues about the clients as well as truthfulness. When the social workers are carrying out their work, they need to ensure that they apply the code of ethics of privacy, integrity, accuracy and not doing any harm to the clients as explained by (Garton, 1994). Learning about the codes and applying them protects the social workers from malpractice suits, being termed as incompetent by the clients, protecting their professionalism and professional identity as well as ensuring that they have self-regulating measures when working. The Australian code of ethics further insists on avoidance of conflict of interest and

Saturday, July 27, 2019

Denny's Corporation - Analysis on 2011 Annual Report Research Paper

Denny's Corporation - Analysis on 2011 Annual Report - Research Paper Example These executives are mainly involved in the decision making process in the company and decide about the expansion or franchising projects that the company undertakes. (Denny's, 2012) The company also has a very catching title that says, ‘America’s diner is always open’, showing their great commitment towards serving their customers. (Denny's, 2012) The company’s profitability ratios indicate that the return on assets is substantially positive, 33.93%, giving a good indication that the company is making money out of its current assets very effectively. Nevertheless, the ROE gives a very bleak picture for its investors with a negative value of 198%. This is not a good sign for its equity holders who are not being repaid for their capital that they have invested in the company and are probably suffering in the form of stuck capital. It can also be said that the company is finding it hard to attract new investors as its image as a profitable investment has been badly tarnished. The company’s current ratio is very high compared to industry standards, 70.2, indicating a strong control over the short term assets with which it can finance its day to day operations or pay off its debts. The working capital indicates that the company requires excessive amount of money on a daily basis to keep the operations running. As the business consists of high variable costs due to its ongoing purchase of raw materials, it requires plenty of short term cash to finance these costs. The difference between the current and acid-test ratio shows why inventories form such a big part of the current assets of the company, contributing around 60% of total current assets of the company. The company’s activity ratios show signs of a promising growth as the inventory is converted into finished goods 96 times in one year. On the other hand, the company receives back its credit within an average of 10.9 days, showing there isn’t much delay between t he transaction and the inflow of cash. This is a good sign for Denny’s Corporation as it requires great sums of money in the short term to finance its inventories of raw materials. By maintaining such low Accounts Receivable Turnover that company ensures it keeps on getting cash from its customers to further fund its operations in the future. The company didn’t pay out any dividend to its shareholders indicating why it isn’t a great investment for investors and not a good opportunity for growth in the long run. Although the company has a respectable price to earnings ratio of 3.72, meaning that for every dollar the company earned, the price that the investor has to pay for the company’s share was 3.72. Keeping this in mind, the company still didn’t offer any dividends to its equity holders and instead resorted to retaining the profits within the company either for purpose of expansion or funding the operations of the company. The company’s l everage ratio portrays a risky picture. The company has roughly 1.02 units of debt for every 1 unit of asset, making it highly volatile and prone to huge burden and failure to pay the interest payments. The company has high financial leverage and can use it to their advantage if it carefully monitors the progress of the company. At the moment, the debt to equity ratio is 37.22, which is substantially higher than a safe level. This can be

Friday, July 26, 2019

Single parenting and the effects it will have on children and they how Annotated Bibliography

Single parenting and the effects it will have on children and they how handle relationships - Annotated Bibliography Example ng child can be difficult, besides the obvious economic hardships there are many psychological effects resulting in depression and behavioral instability. Another reason for increase in number of single parent led families is outside or before marriage births and it is estimated that about 40 percent of the total births in America occur without marriage (Ablow). Research shows that the child subjected to a divorce or living alone with a parent since birth can have low self esteem, rebellious behavior and an overall negativity towards marriage and opposite sex (Coontz). The research takes into consideration a popular sitcom, â€Å"two and a half men† and investigates the core issues the child faces after parental divorce and the influencing factors in his life as well as the nature of relationships the child has with others. It would further compare popular research material based on single parenting recommending practical steps that can be taken to avoid negativity in a child. It shall furthermore explain different parenting styles including authoritative, permissive and authoritarian approaches and propose the most suitable style for such children. The sitcom Two and a Half Men revolves around three main characters; Alan Harper (Father), Charlie Harper (Uncle) and Jake Harper (Child). Alan is a dim wit and weak personality with childhood issues of his own, lives with his brother but has no say in the household matters. He has a tendency to be obnoxious, exhibits vindictive behavior towards her mother and sees his alcoholic brother as an inspiration. Jake is a lethargic child with low self esteem and no real ambitions, after his parent’s divorce he spends time with his mother and father but is more influenced by his father and uncle. He has low intelligence and no concern for personal hygiene but is aware of the norms prevalent in the house; norms set by Charlie. Charlie Harper is an alcoholic and sex addict on a self destructive pattern, a confident and self

Thursday, July 25, 2019

The armys professional culture Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

The armys professional culture - Essay Example Artifacts are visible paraphernalia in their diverse camps, which seek to remind soldiers of the hierarchy that they ought to obey (Hearn 2006). Consequently, a value system has seven values that are specific to the defense force. This facilitates cohesion in the camps which soldiers converge to perform their duties. The mission of the army is as follows; first, it seeks to offers soldiers who are ready to fight and already armed with the necessary artillery (Bonn 2005). Further, the army aims to produce soldiers that are fit to fight everywhere in the globe. In addition, the army has to fulfill a threshold (global requirements) in a bid to accomplish its assignment. It is notable to reveal that indeed the army is well adapted to its current missions because of the following; the proficient uniqueness in the army enables the soldiers to put their duty of protecting a country first. This is an adaptability, which reminds each soldier to work hard, in turn; the army achieves some of its goals. Secondly, there is creation of bonds among the soldiers, which enables them to create functional bonds. In addition, the establishment of a professional family aims to encourage soldiers to fight even when there is detachment from their families (Bonn 2005). Thirdly, the next adaptability is the involvement of hierarchy in the operation of the army. In particular, the clarity in the division of authority enables a further discipline in the soldiers. Consequently, the impact of this discipline on the soldiers heightens their good conduct when at war. Moreover, the army, is able to sustain the fulfillment of its mission because of the tailor made code of ethic of the army. There is a demand of all soldiers to ensure his or her nation has credit because of the uniqueness of the army. In addition, the policy dictates that the soldiers be of strict moral upbringing in order to understand

Personal Philosophy of Success Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Personal Philosophy of Success - Essay Example After the accomplishment of all activities in plan, an individual can therefore count success by enjoying all what he/she has accomplished. In order to achieve success, an individual must come up with some strategies and plans. These strategies act as guidelines towards the achievement of success. Education is one of the major keys to success. Getting educated provides us with an opportunity to make critical decisions about our lives. It helps us to interact with different people and learn from each other. Education, to a great extend helps us, realize, accept and take full responsibilities of our lives (Rohn and Vic 34). My first strategy of success is to accept and take my responsibility in school. The realization of my responsibilities as a college student will become a good channel to my success. There are several activities that require special attentions within the school. Many of the activities performed in school are full determinants of my success. Reading extensively is my responsibility. This will give me a broader thinking that will enable me to handle difficult situations. It is my responsibility to make adequate preparations for my exams. This includes taking much time to study and revise for my exams. This will enable me to handle assignments with little difficulty and submit them in good time. My second strategy is on time management. In order to be successful in my collage life, I must manage my time properly. In order to achieve this, I will require preparing a timetable for my activities whereby.

Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Reflect on the alignment between your skills and attributes and those Essay

Reflect on the alignment between your skills and attributes and those required in commonwealth bank of the accounting profession - Essay Example There is an array of environmental characteristics to which an accountant working with Commonwealth Bank is exposed to. Some of the major operations taking place at the Bank are private and business banking, enterprise and group services, dealing with markets and institutional banking, retail banking service and wealth management. No matter what kind of environmental traits an accountant is exposed to his skills and attributes must be always aligned. To work as an accountant at the Commonwealth Bank one need to have some professional skills as well as some expertise in his or her respective field. In addition to having the basic accounting skills the accountants must also have some other essential skills such as being computer literate and possessing in depth understanding of spreadsheets. As an accountant at Commonwealth one has to deal with petty cash, the investments and bank accounts of other people, so it is necessary that he or she is trustworthy and honest. It is important that the accountant adheres to all the organizational and accounting policies. Commonwealth Bank likes to include individuals in the firm that are good at multitasking. The Commonwealth Bank also likes to include fresh graduates as interns in their team. The reason the Bank likes to welcome new talent is because it wants that minds with new and innovative idea should be the part of the organization and come up with creative new ideas. The firm does not desire for graduates having much experience as interns. All they are looking for are interns willing to work and learn with the bank on a contractual basis. All they require to have is the basic accounting knowledge and computer and presentation skills. Commonwealth Bank may ask its accountants to lead teams for various important projects. They are also required to oversee projects and enforce the policies of the Bank. It will be an advantage for the Bank if the accountant possesses strong communication skills as it will be

Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Comparison of Arguments in their Effectiveness Essay

Comparison of Arguments in their Effectiveness - Essay Example Men often seek uncomplicated solutions to problems as well as useful advice while women often try to institute intimacy by making a discussion of problems and getting concerned in order to strengthen connections. According to Macaulay and Rafelman, the styles of speech that men and women use to converse have been depicted as "debate vs. relate", "report vs. rapport, or "competitive vs. cooperative". In fact, Rafelman shows that men and women view the world very differently and this is because of not only their gender and physical characteristics, but also because of the way that they are raised. For a long time, it has been known that the two sexes think and make decisions differently and this is the reason why they are good at the diverse roles that they undertake, and this includes matters concerning language. What a man is good at doing and the way he does it is not the exact way that a woman would do it. There has been a lot of debate concerning this matter, with some, such as Ma caulay, believing that to believe that women see the world differently from men is being sexist. Rafelman on the other hand, believes otherwise, and they attribute these differences in attitude to the fact that men and women were created differently and these differences were meant to serve specific purposes. The fact that there are differences between the characteristics of men and women is an indication of the way in which they communicate with others within the society. Men and women have extremely different ways of dealing with speech especially in stressful situations and these show just how dissimilar their worldview is. Despite the fact that the circumstances leading to a stressful situation may be similar between the two sexes, the way the respond to it is often quite different and this is often manifested in the way that they communicate. For example, men tend to become moody and brood over the situations, and more often than not, they end up picking up fights with the peop le in their lives. Furthermore, men are more likely to prefer remaining alone until such a time as they feel better before needing any company. This is not the case with women who, when dealing with stressful situations, often seek the company of their friends and family with whom to converse so that they can help them deal with the situation. Therefore, it can be said that while men are often aggressive in their speech when in a stressful situation, preferring to be alone, women on the other hand prefer to deal with the situation with the help of the people they love. Men and women view the world differently through the use of new technology in the daily activities; one of the findings is that men use the internet more often on a daily basis as compared to the women. In reality, men prefer doing practical things like paying bills online instead of physically doing the payments. On the contrary, women will prefer handling bills physically, and when searching for something online, th ey are likely to view broad range of sources of information. Instead of searching information online using a variety of search engines, they would do the searching using the sources they trust would give them what they are looking for, these are often limited in number which is attributed to the fact that women have a less probability of trusting as compared to men when it comes to practical issues. Men would use the internet tools frequently for various

Monday, July 22, 2019

United States Declaration of Independence Essay Example for Free

United States Declaration of Independence Essay Declaring Our Independence The Declaration of Independence was approved by Congress on July 4th, 1776. It was written by Thomas Jefferson and published by John Dunlap. After it was written it was sent to General George Washington to be read to his troops in New York who were getting ready to fight off the British army (Library of Congress).The Declaration of Independence has been around for almost two hundred and fifty years, many things have changed in this country in that amount of time. Does the Declaration still hold the same values as it did back then, or has it evolved over time to have a different meaning? What was the purpose of the Declaration of Independence and why is it still looked upon so highly today? Was there more to the Declaration of Independence then just getting free from Britain or did it also lead the way to create America? All of these questions will be answered in the following paragraphs to have a better understanding of really how important one piece of paper can be to a nation. A good way to start to understand what the Declaration means is by looking at the first few lines. â€Å"When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve them with another to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to separation (US 1776).† This part of the Declaration of Independence is talking about how Britain became such a pain to the colonies with all of their taxes and their rules that the decision it was in their best interest to leave from the rule of Britain and form a new nation. Not only was this addressing those who called themselves Americans but all of mankind. They did this so that they could have more people able to assist them in the fighting of Britain (Library of Congress). Britain was deeply in debt. Mercantilism was orthodoxy, and as such, the thought was that the colonies should contribute more to the common security of the realm (Halvorson). Another thing that Britain did to make the colonial settlers upset was that British soldiers were allowed to stay in any of the houses in the 13 colonies with little or no reason to why. It made Britain look very evil in the eyes of these settlers and the first paragraph of the Declaration reinforces this idea. The second Paragraph of the Declaration of Independence might possibly have the single most important phrase in all of the united states. The first sentence contains the phrase â€Å"all men are created equal.† Now in 1776 this phrase was probably taken more literally meaning that all men would have rights and Jefferson wanted to exclude men and women. However, some argue that all men are talking about all of humanity. Numerous times thought out history important figures such Abraham Lincoln, Martin Luther King and Elizabeth Cady Stanton have referenced the Declaration of Independence when try to obtain equality for Women and African Americans. In 1857 Lincoln had mentioned that the assertion â€Å"all men are created equal† was of no practical use for separate from Great Britain and was placed in the Declaration for future use (Armitage 44). As well in the 19th century, the Declaration of sentiments played a key role in the women rights movement and almost mirrored the Declaration of Independence (Halvorson). Without those five small, but powerful words the United States would be a much different place then it is today. The meaning of the phrase has changed over time allowing even more than just men being equal. Today the United States of America tries to make everyone equal even if at times it might now seem that way. It didn’t have anything to do with trying to leave Britain, Jefferson put that phrase in there for the future of this country. The Declaration of Independence gave some insight on the Idea of Popular Sovereignty. Popular sovereignty is the doctrine that sovereign power is vested in the people and that those chosen to govern, as trustees of such power, must exercise it in conformity with the general will. Basically, it means that the people can come up with the government and make it, however, the people want it to be. The Declaration gives the power to the people and not to the system that is governing them. â€Å"Governments are instituted among Men deriving their powers from the consent of the governed†(US 1776) Without this we might have formed a new government in the United States but it could have very well ended up as a monarchy. Popular sovereignty is key to making a peoples government and the Deceleration of Independence clearly reinforces this. The Deceleration of Independence also informs the public of the Social Contract. The Social Contract is the agreement among individuals by which society becomes organized and invested with the right to secure mutual protection and welfare. Both the government and the citizens are part of this social contract. The people be a part of the decisions and if they disagree with the government then they can just change it. â€Å" That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends it is the Right of the people to alter or to abolish it and to institute new Government†(US 1776). It seems in this day and age that people are afraid to stand up to the government and fight for what they believe in. Currently, many congressmen and congresswomen are being bought out to vote in certain ways over the topic of Net neutrality. It would be the peoples job to step up and talk with their representatives and show them what they are interested in and not let corporation buy out th eir representatives. The term natural and Induvial Rights also comes up in the Declaration of Independence. These are rights that all people should have. These rights include life liberty and the pursuit of happiness. They share the values of freedom equality and justice. No one should be able to take these rights from people, and it is up to the government to make sure that the people’s rights are protected. Without the government to protect the rights of the people things would start to fall apart for society. â€Å"endowed by their creator with certain unalienable Rights that among these are Life Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness†(US 1776). These are what are also known as the Universal truths and over the course of the next two decades, America would try to help other countries around the worlds come to have similar Universal truths as to what is stated in the Declaration of Independence. Not only was the Declaration important in assisting the start of this nation and help to fight for freedom of Brittan’s monarchy, it is also used today to influences modern American political culture. One way it has influenced political culture is it has caused us many reasons why America chooses to go to war with countries who might seem like the people are being oppressed in some way by the government. America looks on to the Declaration as a sort of moral compass when it comes to deciding whether or not it is right to go into other countries and try to abolish any oppression that is going on. As a continuing inspiration in the United States and throughout the world to end oppression and to make sure that all groups of people enjoy a self-government and representation of both their collective interests and their personal freedom (Pencak 234). Today more than ever you will see this power abused by people in America to try to gain more than just helping an oppressed people. If you look at wars today that the United States are involved in some of them are masked by the idea that these groups of people are not free and do not have access to the natural rights that the Declaration of Independence refers too. Instead, you have people who are fighting over others natural resources and land first and the rights of the people come second or don’t even come at all. The same ideologies that this country was built on are now being using selfishly into a power grab for land and money from other countries. The Declaration\s aspirational vision has had a remarkable influence on American notions of liberal equality, even in the days when only white males could formally participate in politics (Tsesis 698). It has also been referenced a lot in current social movements today. Groups such as Black Lives Matter and Arab spring and Tiananmen Square openly and repeatedly invoke in the Language and the ideals of the document (Halvorson). This shows how the Declaration can be used as a voice for the minority groups in America to help end the oppression that they might be facing. In conclusion, the Declaration of Independence is a lot more than some old piece of paper written by a bunch of old white guys. It is more than that, it is many things. It was a letter to the British telling them that they don’t wish to be a part of their empire anymore. It was a way to bring hope to the oppressed and way to make sure that one day everyone in the nation and even on the earth was treated equally. Over time it has been used for good by the majority of people and some have even used it to justify bad doings. Overall the Declaration was important in the forming of America and is important for what the country should form into of the course of time. It was tough for the founding fathers to frame what society would look like in the next couple of decades but they did a great job in laying the bricks for the path they wanted the country to become. Without the Declaration of Independence America could still be under the rule of the British. Women would not have as man y rights as they do now, slavery could very well be a thing in this country without this document. The world would be a much different place then what it is today. It is nowhere near perfect but it is the Declaration of Independence that pushed everyone in the world a little bit closer in the right direction towards freedom. Work Cited Armitage, David. â€Å"The Declaration of Independence and International Law.† Foundations of Modern International Thought, Jan. 2002, pp. 191–214., doi:10.1017/cbo9781139032940.017. Halvorson, Seth D. â€Å"Historical Context for the Declaration of Independence.† Columbia College, www.college.columbia.edu/core/content/american-revolution-and-founding-texts/context. Pencak, William. â€Å"The Declaration of Independence: Changing Interpretations and a New Hypothesis.† Pennsylvania History: A Journal of Mid-Atlantic Studies, vol. 57, no. 3, 1 July 1990, pp. 225–235. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/27773386?ref=search-gateway:db0ae02fe1b84f163f034404f6687764. â€Å"Creating the United States Creating the Declaration of Independence.† All Men Are Created Equal Creating the Declaration of Independence Creating the United States | Exhibitions Library of Congress, www.loc.gov/exhibits/creating-the-united-states/interactives/declaration-of-independence/equal/index.html â€Å"Creating the United States Creating the Declaration of Independence.† Index of Documents for All Men Are Created Equal Creating the Declaration of Independence Creating the United States | Exhibitions Library of Congress, www.loc.gov/exhibits/creating-the-united-states/interactives/declaration-of-independence/equal/documents.html. The Declaration of Independence: Full Text.† Ushistory.org, Independence Hall Association, www.ushistory.org/declaration/document/. Tsesis, Alexander. â€Å"Self-Government and the Declaration of Independence†, 97 Cornell L. Rev. 693 (2012) http://scholarship.law.cornell.edu/clr/vol97/iss4/1

Sunday, July 21, 2019

Air France Flight 447 Crash 2009 Engineering Essay

Air France Flight 447 Crash 2009 Engineering Essay On May 31, 2009, Air Frances flight AF447 left Rio de Janeiro to take its 228 passengers to Paris. After sending the last message to Brazil ATC three hours after the flight took off, the aircraft suddenly disappeared while passing through the equatorial ITCZ. The aircraft computer system managed to transmit 24 fault messages indicating speed sensor problems to the Air Frances Paris Centre before it went missing. In the early morning hours of June 1, 2009, the aircraft dived into the Atlantic Ocean killing all passengers onboard. The investigation positively identified the main cause of the disaster as the pitot tube or the speed and temperature sensor malfunction located underneath the aircrafts cockpit. The cause of the pitot tube malfunctioning was determined to be due to the accumulation of ice crystals around it. Consequently, the aircrafts computerized navigational system was affected resulting in failure of different flight control systems. However, the physical evidences recov ered from the crash site suggest that the main pilot was not in the cockpit during the critical moments of the flight. Moreover, bodies of passengers and crew were found scattered in the crash indicating the possibility that they were not prepared for a crash landing. The analysis of the incident points to the possibility that the control of the aircraft during its final hour was left in the hands of a less experienced third officer. In general, the weather condition in the area where flight AF447 flew is the main causal factor that caused the pitot tube to malfunction. Another is Air France continuous use of a particular pitot tube that was implicated in a number of aircraft incidents in the past. Human error is also a contributing factor when the pilot made a very bad decision of flying through a known danger zone while others were diverting their route to avoid it. Another is the possibility that the captain was never in the cockpit during the critical hour as evidenced by the un prepared crew and passengers. Human error was involved in the safety design of the aircrafts computerized navigational system as evidenced by the sudden shut-down of the flight computers during the most critical moments of the incident. Finally, the worlds aviation industry and associated organizations are considered causal factors for their failure to set proper guidelines and standards for pitot tubes and travel across ITC zones. TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 4 The Crash of Air France Flight 447 5 2.1 Background 5 2.2 Weather Condition 7 2.3 The Air Traffic Controllers 10 2.4 The Passengers of Flight AF447 11 2.5 The Aircraft and its Navigational Computer Systems 12 2.6 The Flight Crew and Human Errors 18 2.7 The World Aviation and other Organizations 23 Discussion and Conclusion 25 References 29 Appendices 32 Introduction On May 31, 2009 at 19:03 Brazilian local time, Air Frances flight AF447 was on its way to Paris from Rio de Janeiro carrying 228 passengers and crew when it encountered some technical problem. The A330 Airbus flew over the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) where it encountered numerous thunderstorms and on the morning of June 1, 2009, the plane crashed into the Atlantic Ocean killing all passengers and crew. The rescuers found small pieces of the aircraft indicating that it had landed like a flat hand into the waters with the nose slightly pointing upwards. The results of the investigation suggest that the cause of the incident was a malfunctioning pitot tube that was gradually covered by ice crystals during the flight. The pitot tube failed to send speed data to the aircrafts computerized navigation system resulting in a chain of problems and eventual loss of control. Four minutes before the aircraft finally hit the Atlantic Ocean, the computer system sent 24 messages informing the Air France Paris centre of the occurring failures. The last message sent by the pilot to Brazil and Senegal ATC was the one informing them that the aircraft reached high level 350 three hours after takeoff. The ATC never heard from the aircraft again and there was no way to monitor since the aircraft was out of the radar range. The investigation of the incident reveals some surprising details such as the absence of the pilot from the cockpit during the final hour of flight AF447 and dead bodies of passengers and cabin crew that seemed unprepared for an emergency landing. Moreover, the aircrafts position when it hit the water appears it had lost track of its altitude while the pilot was struggling to bring the nose up. The weather condition in the ITCZ area is undoubtedly the causal factor in flight AF447 crash since the extreme weather condition rendered the pitot tube useless. However, it could have been a successful flight if the pitot tube was designed to withstand such weather conditions or if the pilot took a diversion avoiding passing through a dangerous area. To summarize in a nutshell, three major causal factors are involved in flight AF447 disaster namely weather, pitot tube, and human error. The following sections discuss the details of the incident including background information before the disaster, the causal factors that may have contributed to the disaster, graphs and other details, discussion, and conclusion. The Crash of Air France Flight 447 Background The A330-200 Airbus, Air Frances flight AF447, was on its way to Paris from Rio de Jenario when in the early hours of that ill-fated day of June 1, 2009 something terrible and unexpected happened. Brazilian ATC got the last message from the AF447 and then all contact was lost. The plane was carrying 228 passengers and crew when it suddenly disappeared over the Atlantic Ocean. This set the background for one of the worst catastrophe in the aviation history, which killed 228 people. After hours of search and inquiry about the lost aircraft, the Air France officials did a detailed investigation of the messages transmitted from the plane before the accident. Except for some printout data indicating problems measuring air speed and difficulty in the in-flight computer control systems, the Brazilian and Senegalese air traffic controller reported that the plane never sent any distress signals. After about five days of the incident, the wreckage of the aircraft was found floating on the Atla ntic. About a month later, several pieces of the aircraft and some bodies were recovered but the flight data recorder or the black box was never recovered due to the extreme depth of the ocean (Kilner 2010, p.121). Sudden disappearance of flight AF447 causing a terrible air disaster and its discovery couple of days later, completely wrecked in pieces in the Atlantic Ocean, raises a lot of questions as to what went wrong. Various theories are given as well as various opinions. To unravel the mystery of AF447 air crash, a number of elements need to be evaluated. Since the black box was never found, people have no way of telling the actual cause of the crash. It may be because of the problem reported in the last message or some other problems after that. However, since there was no distress signal sent to the ATC except for some flight data printout of problems in air speed and computer control systems resulting in technical failures, the aircrafts flight control system would top the list. Second most prominent element that was evaluated in the investigation was the human error; the crew and particularly the pilots who were supposed to contact the ATC in case of any emergency. There were also some speculations about an explosion before the aircraft hit the water due to the presence of a long oil slick near the crash site (CNN World 2009, p.1). However, the constituting elements in this type of an accident is not limited to the people directly involved in the flight or terrorism, but extends to the prevailing weather, the control agencies, and other people who are responsible for commercial aviation (Kilner 2010, p.121). Weather Condition Meteorological analysis on the weather condition on AF447 crash doom day revealed its role in the cascade of events that occurred. There is substantial evidence that the thunderstorm and lightening resulted in raging turbulence, which affected the plane. The first thunderstorm encountered by AF447 was near Sao Luis in Brazil, followed by a dense cluster of thunderstorm and lightening in the Fernando de Noronha area, which comes in the ITCZ, the low pressure belt area at the equator. Such thunderstorms can create updrafts, which can reach up to 100 mph pooled up with downdrafts caused by cool air and vertical dry air mixing, which can lead to severe turbulence to aircraft. Other flights that were scheduled to fly the same night on the same route took a diversion of about 90 miles to avoid the storm zone, which encompassed about 50,000 feet of altitude. Then what prompted the experienced pilot and crew members of AF447, even after knowing the trouble, to enter the trouble zone? Would any pilot opt to fly in such a bad storm? This needed a serious thought and on investigating this matter it was observed that due to the small thunderstorm that the aircraft faced in the Sao Louis area before entering the huge thunderstorm front, the flights weather radar system may have got confused and thus the pilot and the crew were not aware of the big storm that was coming towards them. This reasoning is possible as aircraft radar system works on radio echoing principle. The tilt of the radar antenna beam helps the aircraft to detect the weather forecast. If by any means the tilt of the radar is set to a different angle then it is possible that the weather that might affect the aircraft ahead be missed (Ian Gilbert, 2005). This revelation about the weather condition and the radar operation raises another question as to when the weather condition was dangerous why AF447 did not try to avoid the storm and go around it. The satellite images obtained during the investigation showed that flying through the storm was inevitable for the Air France flight, as the storm covered approximately 400 miles and was in the route of the destination, making it impossible for the aircraft to go over or around the storm; unless they flew back. In such a situation, the only source to rely on for the pilot and the cabin crew would have been the onboard weather radar to navigate through, but the radar can only detect rain and not the turbulent wind shear. It is quite possible that these tempestuous weather conditions may have led to structural or electrical failure that was reported by the automated computer communications between the AF447 and Air France Paris headquarters. It is generally accepted that the weather in the route where flight AF447 was flying is very bad as evidenced by a number of accidents occurring particularly in that part of the equator. The weather forecast on that day was bad and it was up to the pilot to avoid the heavy thunderstorms they would encounter en-route to their destination. According to the analysis conducted on the incident, two engine planes like the A330 Airbus can withstand such conditions and flexible enough to go around any heavy thunderstorm. However, the weather condition on this situation may be too severe and created some unexpected problems for the aircraft (Kilner 2010, p.122). According to the analysis of the Baringer et al. (2010, p.182), there are evidences to suggest that the weather was an influencing factor in the crash of flight AF447. The report points to the large warm pool directly underneath the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone or ITCZ which was very active during that year. The Air Frances commercial flight that started its trip on the night of May 31 flew over the ITCZ passing an area of strong cumulus towers overnight. Equatorial weather data for the whole year of 2009 suggest that rainfall over the equator and tropical Pacific is 150% above normal (See satellite images in Figure A-1, p.32 and Figure A-2, p 33 in Appendix A). Aside from the ITCZ, there were also speculations about the occurrence of a microburst, a weather phenomenon that was implicated to a number of aircraft crashes like the Continental flight 3407 in New York and Delta Flight 191 in 1985 which killed 135 people (see Figure A-3, p.33 in Appendix A). According to McCormick et al. (2003, p.165), weather can play a role in accidents particularly in air transports. For instance, some of the most common affect of weather is reduced visibility, turbulence and gusting conditions, wind shear, ice and rain water on runways, and microburst conditions. In the annual review of aircraft accidents in 1995 conducted by the U.S. National Safety Board, weather contributes to 39 percent of fatal accidents while the majority at 87 percent is pilot error. The chart provided by U.S. National Safety Board shows the most usual initiating events of aircraft accidents and the most likely contributing factors. (See figure B-1 and B-2, p.34 in Appendix B) The Air Traffic Controllers In context to AF447 crash, ATC data becomes the prominent evidence in understanding the most probable reason behind the crash. The ATC details showed that the last contact made by the crew was with Brazilian ATC at 01:33 UTC, as the aircraft approached the Brazil Atlantic radar surveillance edge. After this routine message, the only information received was the 24 automated error messages received detailing flight problems and warnings, which was about 40 minutes after the last contact made at the Brazilian ATC. The last automated error message transmitted was at 2:14 UTC which mentioned about the cabin depressurization after which nothing was heard about the Air France 447. On deeper analysis of the ATC communication data that transpired during the flight, it shows that between 21:40 hr and 23:18 hr, there was successful communication between the crew and ATC. At 1 h 35 min 46 sec, the controller reported the aircraft to maintain an altitude of FL350 and to give TASIL estimate. Between 1 h 35 min 53 sec and 1 h 36 min 14 sec, the ATLANTICO checked with the crew on the estimate time of their reaching the TASIL point, which went unanswered. (BEA 2009, p.33). All these details point towards a strong possibility that the crew of flight AF447 was trying to contact the ATC before the incident but due to distance and bad weather conditions, the crew failed to get through. The ATC on the other hand had no radar coverage of that area and no weather data to warn the crew before it took off (Kilner 2010, p.122). The transcript of the investigation clearly stated that the pilot of flight AF447 reported flight level 350 which means the plane had reached its proper altitude after 3 hours. This is the last communication sent by AF447 with the ATC. In case there was a single message asking ATC for help then there might be some reason to implicate ATC on the incident, but there was none (Traufetter 2010, p.6). At this point, even the investigation conducted after the crash did not mention anything linking the Brazilian and Senegalian ATC to the incident except that they have a limited capability. The Passengers of Flight AF447 Aside from the angle of terrorism, the passengers seem an irrelevant factor contributing to the incident particularly when there was no indication of explosion in the recovered aircraft parts. However, one cannot eliminate the possibility that someone disabled the pilots and ditched the plane into the ocean. The possibility of terrorism is narrow and it cannot be eliminated completely but since there were actual distress messages from the aircraft before the crash, the possibility is irrelevant to consider. For instance, there were indeed data to prove that the aircrafts navigational system was failing minutes before the crash. Moreover, the rescue team sent to the crash site found considerable evidence that show that the crash occurred so suddenly that the bodies of passengers were not prepared for an emergency landing. The stewardess was also not sitting in the emergency seat and the life jackets were not used. From an ordinary passenger who may have been travelling through a commercial airline number of times, it is easy to visualize how crew members assigned in the cabin would prepare passengers in an emergency situation. If the imminent crash is known beforehand, passengers will be prepared for emergency landing and will be found almost in the same position and location during the rescue. Apparently, the report says that they were scattered everywhere indicating that cabin crew and passengers were not informed and wearing no seatbelts (Faith 2010, p.6). This surprising fact is linked to the man in control of the aircraft minutes before the crash. If the captain is the one maneuvering the plane, was he as an experienced and responsible person would not order or inform his cabin crew to prepare for an emergency? The passengers and even the cabin crew were mere victims and not in any way connected or contributed to the crash. The Aircraft and its Navigational Computer Systems The Airbus A330 is a modern aircraft and most commercial aircrafts are generally well-maintained. However, this aircraft model had been previously reported in one or two cases involving air speed measurement problems like the incident involving A340 flight from Tokyo to Paris, several months before the AF447 incident. Going by the investigation details, a day before the accident, the captain of AF447 had complained about some problem with the VHF1 selection key on RMP1, which was looked into. The routine Type A checks that were done on this aircraft type also did not identify any anomalies. These facts clearly indicate the otherwise good condition of the aircraft before the tragic flight. Measuring and maintaining the required air speed of the aircraft especially at high altitudes is very relevant. When air speed is not measured correctly, the pilot has a hard time controlling the plane particularly while flying in a very bad weather condition. In air transport, the most dreaded challenge faced by the pilots when things go out of control at high altitudes is the coffin corner, the area where the margin of error becomes very narrow. AF447 may also have faced the same fate with no chance of escape. On close speculation of the events that happened on 1st June, 2009 at 3 AM BST time, two main events surface. The A330 airbus reported that it has encountered bad weather and severe turbulence and ten minutes later the autopilot got disengaged as per the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS). The succession of these two events indicate that flying the 233 ton heavy aircraft and managing the internal condition was becoming tough for the crew at the advent of storm battering the aircraft from all sides. Reviewing the error messages that were received at the Air France Paris headquarters, it was evident that the three Air Data Inertial Reference Unit (ADIRU) computers were showing different information. This information is the compilation of the data received from the pitot tubes that is then transferred to aircraft computers. Speed is a crucial factor in aerodynamics. At high altitudes, speed alteration can be treacherous. As the air becomes thinner at higher altitudes, the more speed is required to push the plane forward and to maintain its lift. If the speed is less, the plane will start stalling. At the same time, if speed becomes too much then because of passage of more air above the wings the center tends to move backwards pushing the nose of the plane down resulting in nosedive. As reported from the ACARS, it got 24 error messages from the autopilot before losing the connection. It becomes very clear from this fact that the crew members of AF447 were unaware of the actual speed and various equipments were showing inconsistent speeds. A big issue that comes up here is whether it was a complete system failure that occurred? The fact that during the vigorous attempts to save the aircraft and the passengers the plane was sending data to the maintenance facility gives a clear evidence that there was some electricity in the plane, which is impossible in case of 100% system failure. So that aspect can be completely eliminated. Investigating the automated error messages, it included 19 warnings and 5 failure messages. The equipment failure messages included the failure of cabin pressure control, autopilot, and flight controls. The warning messages were about the disengaged autopilot and disagreement between the air data systems, also warning about the cabin vertical speed. These messages and data strongly point towards speed discrepancies that happened in the aircraft due to equipment failure. From this standpoint, pitot tube is also being implicated as the most likely cause of the disaster as Pitot tube is a component of the aircraft maintenance computer or the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS). The system transmit messages via satellite to ground stations which were the same messages received by the ATC before the AF447 incident. Going by reports, based on Air France Airbus earlier incidents, it was identified that the existing Pitot tubes had a high probability of malfunctioning in cold and icy conditions. The problems that were highlighted at that time due to Pitot tube malfunctioning were fluctuating and wrong speed indications, automatic switch off of the autopilot, and even a false warning under extreme conditions. On 1st June, 2009 before AF447 vanished into the Atlantic, the first automatic error message that ATC reported was that the aircraft was fluctuating badly, which followed by automatics switch off of fly-by-wire system. On comparing both the reports and facts of the incident, the vulnerability of the pitot tubes that were attached to the aircrafts cockpit comes out more distinctly, which in turn decided the fate of the aircraft and its passengers on the doom day. A330-200 Airbus had three pitot probes fitted to its aircraft, so it seems like all the three pitot tubes got iced up simultaneously. Most probably, all three of them were unable to tolerate the extreme conditions faced by AF447. According to BEA investigation report, it was identified that the present pitot tubes are certified only to handle temperatures of -40C. From the meteorological details and satellite images obtained on crash day in and around the ITCZ area, it is very obvious that the aircraft was in the bulk of the cloud fields for a significant amount of time due to the heavy thunderstorms and the super-cooled water in the clouds may have blocked and disabled all the three pitot tubes. Pitot tubes malfunction had caused several incidents in 2008 and generated similar messages or print out data that preceded the flight AF447 crash in June 1, 2009. According to Hichri (2009, p.5), unlike other commercial airlines which upgraded their pitot tubes, Air France did nothing about the problem. Examining the initial physical evidence found on the scene and the information sent by flight AF447 before it crashed, investigators said that the aircraft went through a heavy turbulence without a fully functioning flight control system. The flattened and crushed nose cone of the aircraft tells the story of its high speed impaction with the water. Consequently, the pilot may have struggled to revive their flight management computers while the aircraft was breaking up due to excessive speed (Aviation Human Factors 2009, p.2). Failure of in-flight computer systems is not a novel issue. In fact, it was the mostly considered causal factor in previous aviation incidents. For instance, the causal factor in the shutdown of the busy Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport in April 19, 2006 was caused by software malfunction. The communication failure between FAA Air Traffic Control Center and the aircraft in September 14, 2004 at the Los Angeles International Airport was due to the sudden and unexpected computer shut-down. The crash of Korean Air Flight 801 was also partly caused by malfunctioning Minimum Safe Altitude Warning system or MSAW and the failure of FAA to adequately manage the system. Another is the crash of American Airlines Flight 965, where errors in navigational computer programming are the leading cause of the incident. Similarly, the onboard automating reporting system in Air Frances Flight AF447 sent a total of 24 error messages while the computerized navigational systems failed throu ghout the aircraft (Wong et al., 2009, p.1-8).. After several months of investigation, the scenario depicting the final hour of Flight AF447 was constructed. (See figure C-1, p 35 in Appendix C). This scenario suggests that the horrific disaster was caused by a very small technical failure a false reading from the temperature sensor covered by ice crystals (Traufetter 2010, p.1). Since there was no more airspeed to gather and display, the autopilot and the automatic throttle system also malfunctioned and the computer automatically entered the emergency control mode. At this point, the pilot could no longer control the aircraft as it sped towards the ocean at 2, 500 feet per minute. As a natural reaction, it can be expected that the pilot tried every second to regain control of the aircraft by restarting the flight computer, but evidence suggests that he failed. The disaster in this scenario took place in a matter of four minutes after the pilot lost control of the navigational system due to failure of the temperature probe. Another causal factor suggested by Anleitner (2010, p.123) is the material used in the wiring of this type of aircraft. Kapton an insulating material used in the wiring of most modern aircraft has been shown to decay over time. The same material was one of the suspected causal factors in Swiss Air Flight 111 incident in 1998, TWA 800 disaster, and being considered as a potential contributing factor in the crash of Air France Flight 447 in the Atlantic. When completely decayed, this type of material contributes to short circuit or strong electrical arcing which can ignite fuel vapor. Computers have been blamed for several disasters including the death of 22 American servicemen due to faults in the Blackhawk helicopters computer-based fly-by-wire system. Similarly, an Iraqi Scud missile penetrated the U.S. military barracks due to the failure of the computerized Patriot missile defense system. The failure of the Hubble space telescope was also associated with programming error that shut down the onboard computer unexpectedly. Much worse is the downing of the Korean Air Lines flight 007, sinking of the HMS Sheffield in the Falklands, and the Nepalese A320 disaster caused by faulty software running a computerized fly-by-wire system (Forester Morrison 1994, p.3). The Flight Crew and Human Errors The flight crew of flight AF447 was very experienced but according to Kilner (2010, p.122), too much experience can make some people overconfident. There is, therefore, a possibility that the pilot of flight AF447 overestimated his capability and underestimated the danger ahead. The fact that the pilot decided to fly despite bad weather forecast is an indication of extreme confidence, which novice pilots would never do in such a situation. A less experienced person would probably delay the flight, re-route, or make an emergency stopover in an airport somewhere before the ocean. There is indeed a possibility of a pilot error or errors contributed by one of the crew. For instance, the first officer and the navigator are all working inside the cockpit and their functions if not performed correctly can lead to unimaginable disaster. The first officer is in charge of communication between the plane and the ATC and any mistake can put the plane in a critical situation. The first officer is also in charge of assisting the captain and can put the aircraft in or out of the automated mode, which if done out of procedure or if the captain is not aware can result in sudden or severe dive. Similarly, any wrong input of the navigator in the flight computer can result in wrong flight directions which are very dangerous (McCormick et al. 2003, p.120). In Air Frances flight AF447, the computer system had warned the pilot and the crew of faults very early in the flight. In fact, 24 error messages reached the Air France centre in Paris before the crash. The pilot could have heeded the warnings and turned back, but he never did and in fact took the chances maneuvering over numerous thunderstorms in the ITCZ area. Human error not only exists in inputs or confusions over a navigational chart and communication but does exist in ignorance of warnings also. According to Faith (1997, p.164), pilots are trained individuals that would likely follow set procedures precisely. However, these trainings and familiarity with procedures can sometimes create problems particularly when independent thinking is required. For instance, a certain pilot for Ariana Afghan Airlines Flight 701 flying from Frankfurt to London suffered the most fatal pilot problems a pilot could have indecisiveness. Having years of experience and training, the pilot was considered perfectly competent, but with a tendency to go by with routine procedures regardless of circumstances. Heathrow Airport was clear and most pilots decided to land on it rather than in the foggy area of Gatwick; however, the Ariana Afghan flight 701 pilot decided to land on Gatwick and while nearing the airport, thinking of something else, the pilot was surprised by a thick fog and tried to pull the aircraft nose up but it was too late. Consequently, a second pause killed 43 passengers and all the o ccupants of the house swept by the aircraft. Apparently, the pilot had a second thought on landing the aircraft at the Gatwick airport He was actually hesitating and this may be the reason why he was not concentrating and paused a moment during the approach. The possibility of human error in flight AF447 is great. Although, the weather is the major contributing factor that caused the instability of the aircraft, the warnings from the weather forecast and those released by the computer system could have saved all 228 passengers and crew, if the pilot listened to them and made emergency landing to the nearest available airport. Clearly, the pilot decided to depart from Brazil despite the bad weather on his route and while experiencing tremendous pressure from the ITCZ area, he never decided to return. Confusion inside the cockpit happens, and in an aircraft accident in Dulles International Airport in 1975, confusion over the approach chart and the air traffic controller instructions brought a descending aircraft to a ridge (Johnson Palanque (2004, p.20). According to Forester Morrison (1994, p.2), regardless if the problem is directly associated with computers, the cause of failure is eventually human error. This is because they were designed by humans and the software running them are also produced by humans. Another problem is human input which in many occasions is the cause of computer glitches. For instance, when an American Airlines jet crashed in Colombia, the investigators found out that the pilot missed one letter of the computer command. This very small error sent the plane crashing into the mountain and killed 163 innocent people. The pilot, the investigator reported, entered the coordinated for Cali, their actual destination was coordinates, but made a mistake in one letter of the code which sent the aircraft to the opposite direction towards Bogota (Pfleeger Atlee 2009, p.43). Incidents like these are good example how humans, regardless of advanced computer systems can take erroneous actions res